Premier League 2025-26
339 matches played, 41 remaining · updated June 21, 2026
Upcoming fixtures
10 matches across the next 1 gameweek. Bar shows home win / draw / away win probabilities; xG columns are the expected goals per side; likely score is the most probable scoreline within the most likely outcome bucket (percentage in parens is that scoreline's joint probability). Each gameweek’s biggest fixture — picked by combined race stakes — is featured beneath its schedule.
Gameweek 35May 1 – May 410 matches
| Date | Home | Away | Home win · Draw · Away win | xG | Likely score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1 | Leeds United | vs | Burnley | 61% 21% 18% | 2.19 – 1.11 | 2–1(10%) |
| May 2 | Arsenal | vs | Fulham | 70% 20% 10% | 2.09 – 0.66 | 2–0(14%) |
| May 2 | Brentford | vs | West Ham | 54% 25% 21% | 1.77 – 1.03 | 1–0(10%) |
| May 2 | Newcastle United | vs | Brighton | 37% 26% 37% | 1.52 – 1.54 | 1–2(8%) |
| May 2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | vs | Sunderland | 33% 30% 37% | 1.15 – 1.23 | 0–1(10%) |
| May 3 | Aston Villa | vs | Tottenham | 42% 28% 30% | 1.45 – 1.18 | 1–0(9%) |
| May 3 | Bournemouth | vs | Crystal Palace | 39% 29% 32% | 1.30 – 1.16 | 1–0(10%) |
| May 3 | Manchester United | vs | Liverpool | 48% 24% 27% | 1.85 – 1.36 | 2–1(9%) |
| May 4 | Chelsea | vs | Nottingham Forest | 36% 28% 36% | 1.33 – 1.32 | 1–0(8%) |
| May 4 | Everton | vs | Manchester City | 24% 28% 48% | 1.02 – 1.54 | 0–1(11%) |
Featured match
Brentford host West Ham, with the Hammers scrapping to stay up at a 39% relegation risk while the hosts sit comfortably mid-table. The sides last met on October 20th at the London Stadium, with a result of West Ham 0–2 Brentford. The model leans toward the Bees (54% home win, 25% draw, 21% away), with 1–0 the likeliest scoreline at 10%.
Gameweek 35 · 2026-05-02
Brentford
LDDDD
vs
West Ham
WDWLD
Scoreline probabilities
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 9.6% | 9.8% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6+ | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Most likely: Brentford 1–0 West Ham · 9.9%
Match outcome
Brentford win 54.0%
Draw 25.1%
West Ham win 20.9%
Earlier this season
2025-10-20West Ham 0–2 Brentford
Projected final table
Title (1st)
Champions League (top 5)
Europa League (6th)
Conference League (7th)
Relegation
England confirmed a 5th Champions League slot for 2026-27 via UEFA's European
Performance coefficient. Europa and Conference League slots shown reflect the
standard league route; FA Cup and EFL Cup winners can cascade the 6th / 7th
slots down one place.
| Team | E[Pts] | 5–95% | Title | Champions | Europa | Conf. | Releg | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 81.6 | 78–85 | |||||
| 2 | Manchester City | 79.7 | 75–85 | |||||
| 3 | Manchester United | 66.9 | 63–71 | |||||
| 4 | Liverpool | 63.6 | 59–68 | |||||
| 5 | Aston Villa | 63.4 | 59–68 | |||||
| 6 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 56.5 | 52–60 | |||||
| 7 | AFC Bournemouth | 54.0 | 50–59 | |||||
| 8 | Fulham | 53.5 | 49–57 | |||||
| 9 | Chelsea | 53.4 | 49–58 | |||||
| 10 | Everton | 52.9 | 49–57 | |||||
| 11 | Brentford | 52.8 | 49–57 | |||||
| 12 | Sunderland | 51.0 | 47–55 | |||||
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 48.3 | 44–53 | |||||
| 14 | Newcastle United | 47.3 | 43–52 | |||||
| 15 | Leeds United | 46.1 | 42–50 | |||||
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 44.1 | 40–49 | |||||
| 17 | West Ham United | 40.3 | 37–45 | |||||
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 38.9 | 35–43 | |||||
| 19 | Burnley | 23.8 | 20–27 | |||||
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 21.0 | 18–25 |
What needs to happen
For each club still in a live Title / Champions League / relegation race, here’s how the probability would move given the result of their next match, conditional on a win, draw, or loss. "pp" = percentage points.
Title race
Arsenal
P(1st)70%
H vs Fulham · May 2nd
Win(70% likely)77%+7.8 pp
Draw(20% likely)57%−12.8 pp
Loss(10% likely)43%−26.5 pp
Man City
P(1st)30%
A vs Everton · May 4th
Win(48% likely)43%+12.9 pp
Draw(28% likely)22%−8.0 pp
Loss(24% likely)15%−15.4 pp
Champions League (top 5)
Brighton
P(UCL)6%
A vs Newcastle · May 2nd
Win(37% likely)13%+6.8 pp
Draw(26% likely)2%−3.4 pp
Loss(37% likely)1%−4.8 pp
Relegation battle
Tottenham
P(drop)57%
A vs Villa · May 3rd
Win(30% likely)36%−21.7 pp
Draw(28% likely)60%+3.3 pp
Loss(42% likely)70%+13.3 pp
West Ham
P(drop)39%
A vs Brentford · May 2nd
Win(21% likely)16%−22.8 pp
Draw(25% likely)38%−0.7 pp
Loss(54% likely)49%+9.5 pp
Clinch watch
Strict-math status — what every remaining result could and couldn’t still produce. Ignores goal-difference tiebreakers, so the bar to "clinched" or "relegated" here is slightly conservative; probabilistic picture lives in the Projected final table above.
Champions (mathematically)
— not yet decided
Out of the title race
Liverpool Villa Brighton Bournemouth Chelsea Brentford Fulham Everton Sunderland Palace Newcastle Leeds Forest West Ham Tottenham Burnley Wolves
Champions League clinched (top 5)
Arsenal Man City
Out of the Champions League race (top 5)
Newcastle Leeds Forest West Ham Tottenham Burnley Wolves
European qualification secured (top 7)
Arsenal Man City Man United
Out of European qualification (top 7)
West Ham Tottenham Burnley Wolves
Safe from relegation
Arsenal Man City Man United Liverpool Villa Brighton Bournemouth Chelsea Brentford Fulham Everton
Relegated (mathematically)
Burnley Wolves
Run-in
Remaining fixtures for each side, in chronological order. Each tile is an opponent (TLA) with H/A marker; colour scales with that team's win probability in the match — green means favoured, yellow is a coin flip, red is a heavy underdog. "xPts rem" sums the expected points from all remaining matches; "/match" is the average (a schedule-difficulty proxy). Hover a tile for date, xG, and W/D/L probabilities.
| Team | Rem | H/A | xPts rem | /match | Remaining fixtures | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 2/2 | 8.7 | 2.17 | FULHWHUABURHCRYA |
| 2 | Manchester City | 5 | 3/2 | 9.7 | 1.94 | EVEABREHCRYHBOUAAVLH |
| 3 | Manchester United | 4 | 2/2 | 5.9 | 1.47 | LIVHSUNANFOHBHAA |
| 4 | Liverpool | 4 | 2/2 | 5.6 | 1.40 | MUNACHEHAVLABREH |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 4 | 2/2 | 5.4 | 1.35 | TOTHBURALIVHMCIA |
| 6 | Brighton | 4 | 2/2 | 6.4 | 1.61 | NEWAWOLHLEEAMUNH |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 4 | 2/2 | 5.0 | 1.26 | CRYHFULAMCIHNFOA |
| 8 | Chelsea | 4 | 2/2 | 5.4 | 1.35 | NFOHLIVATOTHSUNA |
| 9 | Brentford | 4 | 2/2 | 4.9 | 1.22 | WHUHMCIACRYHLIVA |
| 10 | Fulham | 4 | 2/2 | 5.5 | 1.37 | ARSABOUHWOLANEWH |
| 11 | Everton | 4 | 2/2 | 5.8 | 1.46 | MCIHCRYASUNHTOTA |
| 12 | Sunderland | 4 | 2/2 | 5.0 | 1.26 | WOLAMUNHEVEACHEH |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 2/3 | 5.3 | 1.05 | BOUAEVEHMCIABREAARSH |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 4 | 2/2 | 5.4 | 1.34 | BHAHNFOAWHUHFULA |
| 15 | Leeds United | 4 | 2/2 | 6.2 | 1.54 | BURHTOTABHAHWHUA |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 4 | 2/2 | 5.1 | 1.28 | CHEANEWHMUNABOUH |
| 17 | West Ham | 4 | 2/2 | 4.2 | 1.06 | BREAARSHNEWALEEH |
| 18 | Tottenham | 4 | 2/2 | 4.9 | 1.23 | AVLALEEHCHEAEVEH |
| 19 | Burnley | 4 | 2/2 | 3.8 | 0.95 | LEEAAVLHARSAWOLH |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 2/2 | 4.0 | 1.00 | SUNHBHAAFULHBURA |
Key remaining matches
Every unplayed fixture ranked by combined race stakes — the sum of how live each side’s title / Champions League / relegation race is. Use this to spot the high-leverage games further out than the next weekend’s slate.
| Date | GW | Fixture | W / D / L | Stakes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May 10th | MW 36 | West Ham vs Arsenal | 18% 24% 58% | West Ham drop 39% Arsenal title 70% |
| 2 | May 19th | MW 37 | Chelsea vs Tottenham | 35% 28% 37% | Chelsea Conf. 18% Tottenham drop 57% |
| 3 | May 19th | MW 37 | Bournemouth vs Man City | 28% 28% 43% | Bournemouth Conf. 18% Man City title 30% |
| 4 | May 24th | MW 38 | Tottenham vs Everton | 26% 28% 47% | Tottenham drop 57% |
| 5 | May 2nd | MW 35 | Brentford vs West Ham | 54% 25% 21% | West Ham drop 39% |
| 6 | May 2nd | MW 35 | Arsenal vs Fulham | 70% 20% 10% | Arsenal title 70% |
| 7 | May 4th | MW 35 | Everton vs Man City | 24% 28% 48% | Man City title 30% |
| 8 | May 9th | MW 36 | Man City vs Brentford | 67% 20% 13% | Man City title 30% |
| 9 | May 3rd | MW 35 | Villa vs Tottenham | 42% 28% 30% | Tottenham drop 57% |
| 10 | May 9th | MW 36 | Fulham vs Bournemouth | 50% 23% 27% | Bournemouth Conf. 18% |
Race tracker
How each live race has moved over the season. Each panel shows the clubs still in contention for that outcome; locked-in sides (already qualified / already safe / already relegated) are dropped so the lines stay readable. Based on 2 season snapshots.
Position probability heatmap
Current table
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 34 | 22 | 7 | 5 | 64 | 26 | +38 | 73 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | +37 | 70 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 60 | 46 | +14 | 61 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 57 | 44 | +13 | 58 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 47 | 42 | +5 | 58 |
| 6 | Brighton and Hove Albion | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | +9 | 50 |
| 7 | AFC Bournemouth | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 52 | 52 | +0 | 49 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 48 |
| 9 | Brentford | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 48 |
| 10 | Fulham | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 48 |
| 11 | Everton | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 41 | 41 | +0 | 47 |
| 12 | Sunderland | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 46 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 43 |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 42 |
| 15 | Leeds United | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 40 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 39 |
| 17 | West Ham United | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 42 | 58 | -16 | 36 |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 34 |
| 19 | Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 24 | 62 | -38 | 17 |
Golden boot
Projected season-end goals for the tracked scorers, sorted by total. "+rem" is expected additional goals over the remaining schedule, derived from each team's fixture-adjusted xG and the player's current share of their team's goals. "Share" shows that share (scaled up so tracked scorers account for the full team GF). Bar length compares to the projected leader.
| Player | Team | Goals | +rem | Proj total | Share | A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 24 | +3.3 | 36% | 7 | |
| 2 | Thiago Rodrigues | Brentford | 21 | +2.2 | 43% | 1 | |
| 3 | Antoine Semenyo | Manchester City | 15 | +2.1 | 23% | 4 | |
| 4 | João Pedro | Chelsea | 14 | +1.5 | 26% | 5 | |
| 5 | Danny Welbeck | Brighton | 13 | +1.6 | 27% | 0 | |
| 6 | Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | 13 | +1.6 | 32% | 4 | |
| 7 | Viktor Gyökeres | Arsenal | 12 | +1.6 | 19% | 0 | |
| 8 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Leeds United | 11 | +1.6 | 25% | 1 | |
| 9 | Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | 11 | +1.2 | 23% | 2 | |
| 10 | Hugo Ekitike | Liverpool | 11 | +1.2 | 19% | 4 | |
| 11 | Eli Kroupi | Bournemouth | 11 | +1.1 | 21% | 0 | |
| 12 | Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | 10 | +1.4 | 28% | 0 | |
| 13 | Harry Wilson | Fulham | 10 | +1.2 | 23% | 6 | |
| 14 | Benjamin Šeško | Manchester United | 10 | +1.0 | 17% | 1 | |
| 15 | Raúl Jiménez | Fulham | 9 | +1.1 | 20% | 3 |
Defence
Clean-sheet and goals-against leaderboard, sorted by projected season clean sheets. "So far" columns are the banked counts from matches already played; "+rem" is the expected additional from remaining fixtures (sum of P(opponent scores 0) for clean sheets, sum of expected goals conceded for GA). "Proj" is the season-end total. Chips are coloured by the projected total.
| Team | GP | CS | +rem | Proj CS | GA | +rem | Proj GA | CS rate | GA/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 16 | +1.8 | 17.8 | 26 | +3.2 | 29.2 | 47% | 0.77 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 14 | +1.9 | 15.9 | 29 | +4.8 | 33.8 | 42% | 0.89 |
| 3 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 12 | +1.3 | 13.3 | 39 | +7.0 | 46.0 | 35% | 1.21 |
| 4 | Everton | 38 | 11 | +1.4 | 12.4 | 41 | +4.4 | 45.4 | 33% | 1.19 |
| 5 | Sunderland | 38 | 10 | +1.0 | 11.0 | 45 | +5.4 | 50.4 | 29% | 1.33 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 38 | 10 | +0.9 | 10.9 | 44 | +6.0 | 50.0 | 29% | 1.32 |
| 7 | Brighton | 38 | 9 | +1.3 | 10.3 | 39 | +4.7 | 43.7 | 27% | 1.15 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 38 | 9 | +1.1 | 10.1 | 42 | +5.5 | 47.5 | 27% | 1.25 |
| 9 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 9 | +1.0 | 10.0 | 45 | +5.6 | 50.6 | 26% | 1.33 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 9 | +1.0 | 10.0 | 45 | +5.7 | 50.7 | 26% | 1.33 |
| 11 | Brentford | 38 | 9 | +0.9 | 9.9 | 46 | +6.3 | 52.3 | 26% | 1.38 |
| 12 | Bournemouth | 38 | 9 | +0.9 | 9.9 | 52 | +6.0 | 58.0 | 26% | 1.53 |
| 13 | Fulham | 38 | 8 | +1.1 | 9.1 | 46 | +5.6 | 51.6 | 24% | 1.36 |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 38 | 8 | +1.1 | 9.1 | 50 | +5.4 | 55.4 | 24% | 1.46 |
| 15 | Tottenham | 38 | 8 | +1.0 | 9.0 | 53 | +5.8 | 58.8 | 24% | 1.55 |
| 16 | Leeds United | 38 | 7 | +1.1 | 8.1 | 51 | +5.4 | 56.4 | 21% | 1.48 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 38 | 6 | +1.0 | 7.0 | 46 | +5.6 | 51.6 | 18% | 1.36 |
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 6 | +0.7 | 6.7 | 58 | +7.0 | 65.0 | 18% | 1.71 |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | 4 | +1.0 | 5.0 | 62 | +5.6 | 67.6 | 13% | 1.78 |
| 20 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | +0.9 | 4.9 | 68 | +7.3 | 75.3 | 13% | 1.98 |